Defective T-cell response to COVID-19 vaccination in acute myeloid leukaemia and myelodysplastic syndromes.

Limited data exist on COVID-19 vaccination efficacy in patients with acute myeloid leukemia and myelodysplasia with excess blasts (AML/MDS-EB2). We report results from a prospective study, PACE (Patients with AML and COVID-19 Epidemiology). 93 patients provided samples post-vaccine 2 or 3 (PV2, PV3). Antibodies against SARS-COV-2 spike antigen were detectable in all samples. Neutralization of the omicron variant was poorer than ancestral variants but improved PV3. In contrast, adequate T-cell reactivity to SARS-COV-2 spike protein was seen in only 16/47 (34%) patients PV2 and 23/52 (44%) PV3. Using regression models, disease response (not in CR/Cri), and increasing age predicted poor T cell response.

Persistent SARS-CoV-2 PCR Positivity Despite Anti-viral Treatment in Immunodeficient Patients.

PURPOSE: COVID-19 infection in immunodeficient individuals can result in chronically poor health, persistent or relapsing SARS-CoV-2 PCR positivity, and long-term infectious potential. While clinical trials have demonstrated promising outcomes using anti-SARS-CoV-2 medicines in immunocompetent hosts, their ability to achieve sustained viral clearance in immunodeficient patients remains unknown. We therefore aimed to study long-term virological outcomes in patients treated at our centre. METHODS: We followed up immunocompromised inpatients treated with casirivimab-imdevimab (Ronapreve) between September and December 2021, and immunocompromised patients who received sotrovimab, molnupiravir, nirmatrelvir/ritonavir (Paxlovid), or no treatment from December 2021 to March 2022. Nasopharyngeal swab and sputum samples were obtained either in hospital or in the community until sustained viral clearance, defined as 3 consecutive negative PCR samples, was achieved. Positive samples were sequenced and analysed for mutations of interest. RESULTS: We observed sustained viral clearance in 71 of 103 patients, none of whom died. Of the 32/103 patients where sustained clearance was not confirmed, 6 died (between 2 and 34 days from treatment). Notably, we observed 25 cases of sputum positivity despite negative nasopharyngeal swab samples, as well as recurrence of SARS-CoV-2 positivity following a negative sample in 12 cases. Patients were then divided into those who cleared within 28 days and those with PCR positivity beyond 28 days. We noted lower B cell counts in the group with persistent PCR positivity (mean (SD) 0.06 (0.10) ×109/L vs 0.22 (0.28) ×109/L, p = 0.015) as well as lower IgA (median (IQR) 0.00 (0.00-0.15) g/L vs 0.40 (0.00-0.95) g/L, p = 0.001) and IgM (median (IQR) 0.05 (0.00-0.28) g/L vs 0.35 (0.10-1.10) g/L, p = 0.005). No differences were seen in CD4+ or CD8+ T cell counts. Antiviral treatment did not impact risk of persistent PCR positivity. CONCLUSION: Persistent SARS-CoV-2 PCR positivity is common among immunodeficient individuals, especially those with antibody deficiencies, regardless of anti-viral treatment. Peripheral B cell count and serum IgA and IgM levels are predictors of viral persistence.

Molnupiravir plus usual care versus usual care alone as early treatment for adults with COVID-19 at increased risk of adverse outcomes (PANORAMIC): an open-label, platform-adaptive randomised controlled trial.

BACKGROUND: The safety, effectiveness, and cost-effectiveness of molnupiravir, an oral antiviral medication for SARS-CoV-2, has not been established in vaccinated patients in the community at increased risk of morbidity and mortality from COVID-19. We aimed to establish whether the addition of molnupiravir to usual care reduced hospital admissions and deaths associated with COVID-19 in this population. METHODS: PANORAMIC was a UK-based, national, multicentre, open-label, multigroup, prospective, platform adaptive randomised controlled trial. Eligible participants were aged 50 years or older-or aged 18 years or older with relevant comorbidities-and had been unwell with confirmed COVID-19 for 5 days or fewer in the community. Participants were randomly assigned (1:1) to receive 800 mg molnupiravir twice daily for 5 days plus usual care or usual care only. A secure, web-based system (Spinnaker) was used for randomisation, which was stratified by age (<50 years vs ≥50 years) and vaccination status (yes vs no). COVID-19 outcomes were tracked via a self-completed online daily diary for 28 days after randomisation. The primary outcome was all-cause hospitalisation or death within 28 days of randomisation, which was analysed using Bayesian models in all eligible participants who were randomly assigned. This trial is registered with ISRCTN, number 30448031. FINDINGS: Between Dec 8, 2021, and April 27, 2022, 26 411 participants were randomly assigned, 12 821 to molnupiravir plus usual care, 12 962 to usual care alone, and 628 to other treatment groups (which will be reported separately). 12 529 participants from the molnupiravir plus usual care group, and 12 525 from the usual care group were included in the primary analysis population. The mean age of the population was 56·6 years (SD 12·6), and 24 290 (94%) of 25 708 participants had had at least three doses of a SARS-CoV-2 vaccine. Hospitalisations or deaths were recorded in 105 (1%) of 12 529 participants in the molnupiravir plus usual care group versus 98 (1%) of 12 525 in the usual care group (adjusted odds ratio 1·06 [95% Bayesian credible interval 0·81-1·41]; probability of superiority 0·33). There was no evidence of treatment interaction between subgroups. Serious adverse events were recorded for 50 (0·4%) of 12 774 participants in the molnupiravir plus usual care group and for 45 (0·3%) of 12 934 in the usual care group. None of these events were judged to be related to molnupiravir. INTERPRETATION: Molnupiravir did not reduce the frequency of COVID-19-associated hospitalisations or death among high-risk vaccinated adults in the community. FUNDING: UK National Institute for Health and Care Research.

Favipiravir, lopinavir-ritonavir, or combination therapy (FLARE): A randomised, double-blind, 2 × 2 factorial placebo-controlled trial of early antiviral therapy in COVID-19.

BACKGROUND: Early antiviral treatment is effective for Coronavirus Disease 2019 (COVID-19) but currently available agents are expensive. Favipiravir is routinely used in many countries, but efficacy is unproven. Antiviral combinations have not been systematically studied. We aimed to evaluate the effect of favipiravir, lopinavir-ritonavir or the combination of both agents on Severe Acute Respiratory Syndrome Coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) viral load trajectory when administered early. METHODS AND FINDINGS: We conducted a Phase 2, proof of principle, randomised, placebo-controlled, 2 × 2 factorial, double-blind trial of ambulatory outpatients with early COVID-19 (within 7 days of symptom onset) at 2 sites in the United Kingdom. Participants were randomised using a centralised online process to receive: favipiravir (1,800 mg twice daily on Day 1 followed by 400 mg 4 times daily on Days 2 to 7) plus lopinavir-ritonavir (400 mg/100 mg twice daily on Day 1, followed by 200 mg/50 mg 4 times daily on Days 2 to 7), favipiravir plus lopinavir-ritonavir placebo, lopinavir-ritonavir plus favipiravir placebo, or both placebos. The primary outcome was SARS-CoV-2 viral load at Day 5, accounting for baseline viral load. Between 6 October 2020 and 4 November 2021, we recruited 240 participants. For the favipiravir+lopinavir-ritonavir, favipiravir+placebo, lopinavir-ritonavir+placebo, and placebo-only arms, we recruited 61, 59, 60, and 60 participants and analysed 55, 56, 55, and 58 participants, respectively, who provided viral load measures at Day 1 and Day 5. In the primary analysis, the mean viral load in the favipiravir+placebo arm had changed by -0.57 log10 (95% CI -1.21 to 0.07, p = 0.08) and in the lopinavir-ritonavir+placebo arm by -0.18 log10 (95% CI -0.82 to 0.46, p = 0.58) compared to the placebo arm at Day 5. There was no significant interaction between favipiravir and lopinavir-ritonavir (interaction coefficient term: 0.59 log10, 95% CI -0.32 to 1.50, p = 0.20). More participants had undetectable virus at Day 5 in the favipiravir+placebo arm compared to placebo only (46.3% versus 26.9%, odds ratio (OR): 2.47, 95% CI 1.08 to 5.65; p = 0.03). Adverse events were observed more frequently with lopinavir-ritonavir, mainly gastrointestinal disturbance. Favipiravir drug levels were lower in the combination arm than the favipiravir monotherapy arm, possibly due to poor absorption. The major limitation was that the study population was relatively young and healthy compared to those most affected by the COVID-19 pandemic. CONCLUSIONS: At the current doses, no treatment significantly reduced viral load in the primary analysis. Favipiravir requires further evaluation with consideration of dose escalation. Lopinavir-ritonavir administration was associated with lower plasma favipiravir concentrations. TRIAL REGISTRATION: Clinicaltrials.gov NCT04499677 EudraCT: 2020-002106-68.

Impact of vaccination on hospitalization and mortality from COVID-19 in patients with primary and secondary immunodeficiency: The United Kingdom experience.

Background: Individuals with primary and secondary immunodeficiency (PID/SID) were shown to be at risk of poor outcomes during the early stages of the SARS-CoV-2 pandemic. SARS-CoV-2 vaccines demonstrate reduced immunogenicity in these patients. Objectives: To understand whether the risk of severe COVID-19 in individuals with PID or SID has changed following the deployment of vaccination and therapeutics in the context of the emergence of novel viral variants of concern. Methods: The outcomes of two cohorts of patients with PID and SID were compared: the first, infected between March and July 2020, prior to vaccination and treatments, the second after these intervention became available between January 2021 and April 2022. Results: 22.7% of immunodeficient patients have been infected at least once with SARS-CoV-2 since the start of the pandemic, compared to over 70% of the general population. Immunodeficient patients were typically infected later in the pandemic when the B.1.1.529 (Omicron) variant was dominant. This delay was associated with receipt of more vaccine doses and higher pre-infection seroprevalence. Compared to March-July 2020, hospitalization rates (53.3% vs 17.9%, p<0.0001) and mortality (Infection fatality rate 20.0% vs 3.4%, p=0.0003) have significantly reduced for patients with PID but remain elevated compared to the general population. The presence of a serological response to vaccination was associated with a reduced duration of viral detection by PCR in the nasopharynx. Early outpatient treatment with antivirals or monoclonal antibodies reduced hospitalization during the Omicron wave. Conclusions: Most individuals with immunodeficiency in the United Kingdom remain SARS-CoV-2 infection naïve. Vaccination, widespread availability of outpatient treatments and, possibly, the emergence of the B.1.1.529 variant have led to significant improvements in morbidity and mortality followings SARS-CoV-2 infection since the start of the pandemic. However, individuals with PID and SID remain at significantly increased risk of poor outcomes compared to the general population; mitigation, vaccination and treatment strategies must be optimized to minimize the ongoing burden of the pandemic in these vulnerable cohorts.

Comparative assessment of viral dynamic models for SARS-CoV-2 for pharmacodynamic assessment in early treatment trials.

Pharmacometric analyses of time series viral load data may detect drug effects with greater power than approaches using single time points. Because SARS-CoV-2 viral load rapidly rises and then falls, viral dynamic models have been used. We compared different modelling approaches when analysing Phase II-type viral dynamic data. Using two SARS-CoV-2 datasets of viral load starting within 7 days of symptoms, we fitted the slope-intercept exponential decay (SI), reduced target cell limited (rTCL), target cell limited (TCL) and TCL with eclipse phase (TCLE) models using nlmixr. Model performance was assessed via Bayesian information criterion (BIC), visual predictive checks (VPCs), goodness-of-fit plots, and parameter precision. The most complex (TCLE) model had the highest BIC for both datasets. The estimated viral decline rate was similar for all models except the TCL model for dataset A with a higher rate (median [range] day-1 : dataset A; 0.63 [0.56-1.84]; dataset B: 0.81 [0.74-0.85]). Our findings suggest simple models should be considered during pharmacodynamic model development.

Increased Seroprevalence and Improved Antibody Responses Following Third Primary SARS-CoV-2 Immunisation: An Update From the COV-AD Study.

Background: Patients with primary and secondary antibody deficiency are vulnerable to COVID-19 and demonstrate diminished responses following two-dose SARS-CoV-2 vaccine schedules. Third primary vaccinations have been deployed to enhance their humoral and cellular immunity. Objectives: To determine the immunogenicity of the third primary SARS-CoV-2 immunisation in a heterogeneous cohort of patients with antibody deficiency. Methods: Participants enrolled in the COV-AD study were sampled before and after their third vaccine dose. Serological and cellular responses were determined using ELISA, live-virus neutralisation and ELISPOT assays. Results: Following a two-dose schedule, 100% of healthy controls mounted a serological response to SARS-CoV-2 vaccination, however, 38.6% of individuals with antibody deficiency remained seronegative. A third primary SARS-CoV-2 vaccine significantly increased anti-spike glycoprotein antibody seroprevalence from 61.4% to 76.0%, the magnitude of the antibody response, its neutralising capacity and induced seroconversion in individuals who were seronegative after two vaccine doses. Vaccine-induced serological responses were broadly cross-reactive against the SARS-CoV-2 B.1.1.529 variant of concern, however, seroprevalence and antibody levels remained significantly lower than healthy controls. No differences in serological responses were observed between individuals who received AstraZeneca ChAdOx1 nCoV-19 and Pfizer BioNTech 162b2 during their initial two-dose vaccine schedule. SARS-CoV-2 infection-naive participants who had received a heterologous vaccine as a third dose were significantly more likely to have a detectable T cell response following their third vaccine dose (61.5% vs 11.1%). Conclusion: These data support the widespread use of third primary immunisations to enhance humoral immunity against SARS-CoV-2 in individuals with antibody deficiency.

SARS-CoV-2 Vaccine Responses in Individuals with Antibody Deficiency: Findings from the COV-AD Study.

BACKGROUND: Vaccination prevents severe morbidity and mortality from COVID-19 in the general population. The immunogenicity and efficacy of SARS-CoV-2 vaccines in patients with antibody deficiency is poorly understood. OBJECTIVES: COVID-19 in patients with antibody deficiency (COV-AD) is a multi-site UK study that aims to determine the immune response to SARS-CoV-2 infection and vaccination in patients with primary or secondary antibody deficiency, a population that suffers from severe and recurrent infection and does not respond well to vaccination. METHODS: Individuals on immunoglobulin replacement therapy or with an IgG less than 4 g/L receiving antibiotic prophylaxis were recruited from April 2021. Serological and cellular responses were determined using ELISA, live-virus neutralisation and interferon gamma release assays. SARS-CoV-2 infection and clearance were determined by PCR from serial nasopharyngeal swabs. RESULTS: A total of 5.6% (n = 320) of the cohort reported prior SARS-CoV-2 infection, but only 0.3% remained PCR positive on study entry. Seropositivity, following two doses of SARS-CoV-2 vaccination, was 54.8% (n = 168) compared with 100% of healthy controls (n = 205). The magnitude of the antibody response and its neutralising capacity were both significantly reduced compared to controls. Participants vaccinated with the Pfizer/BioNTech vaccine were more likely to be seropositive (65.7% vs. 48.0%, p = 0.03) and have higher antibody levels compared with the AstraZeneca vaccine (IgGAM ratio 3.73 vs. 2.39, p = 0.0003). T cell responses post vaccination was demonstrable in 46.2% of participants and were associated with better antibody responses but there was no difference between the two vaccines. Eleven vaccine-breakthrough infections have occurred to date, 10 of them in recipients of the AstraZeneca vaccine. CONCLUSION: SARS-CoV-2 vaccines demonstrate reduced immunogenicity in patients with antibody deficiency with evidence of vaccine breakthrough infection.

Outcomes following SARS-CoV-2 infection in patients with primary and secondary immunodeficiency in the UK.

In March 2020, the United Kingdom Primary Immunodeficiency Network (UKPIN) established a registry of cases to collate the outcomes of individuals with PID and SID following SARS-CoV-2 infection and treatment. A total of 310 cases of SARS-CoV-2 infection in individuals with PID or SID have now been reported in the UK. The overall mortality within the cohort was 17.7% (n = 55/310). Individuals with CVID demonstrated an infection fatality rate (IFR) of 18.3% (n = 17/93), individuals with PID receiving IgRT had an IFR of 16.3% (n = 26/159) and individuals with SID, an IFR of 27.2% (n = 25/92). Individuals with PID and SID had higher inpatient mortality and died at a younger age than the general population. Increasing age, low pre-SARS-CoV-2 infection lymphocyte count and the presence of common co-morbidities increased the risk of mortality in PID. Access to specific COVID-19 treatments in this cohort was limited: only 22.9% (n = 33/144) of patients admitted to the hospital received dexamethasone, remdesivir, an anti-SARS-CoV-2 antibody-based therapeutic (e.g. REGN-COV2 or convalescent plasma) or tocilizumab as a monotherapy or in combination. Dexamethasone, remdesivir, and anti-SARS-CoV-2 antibody-based therapeutics appeared efficacious in PID and SID. Compared to the general population, individuals with PID or SID are at high risk of mortality following SARS-CoV-2 infection. Increasing age, low baseline lymphocyte count, and the presence of co-morbidities are additional risk factors for poor outcome in this cohort.

Executable network of SARS-CoV-2-host interaction predicts drug combination treatments.

The COVID-19 pandemic has pushed healthcare systems globally to a breaking point. The urgent need for effective and affordable COVID-19 treatments calls for repurposing combinations of approved drugs. The challenge is to identify which combinations are likely to be most effective and at what stages of the disease. Here, we present the first disease-stage executable signalling network model of SARS-CoV-2-host interactions used to predict effective repurposed drug combinations for treating early- and late stage severe disease. Using our executable model, we performed in silico screening of 9870 pairs of 140 potential targets and have identified nine new drug combinations. Camostat and Apilimod were predicted to be the most promising combination in effectively supressing viral replication in the early stages of severe disease and were validated experimentally in human Caco-2 cells. Our study further demonstrates the power of executable mechanistic modelling to enable rapid pre-clinical evaluation of combination therapies tailored to disease progression. It also presents a novel resource and expandable model system that can respond to further needs in the pandemic.

Treatment of chronic or relapsing COVID-19 in immunodeficiency.

BACKGROUND: Patients with some types of immunodeficiency can experience chronic or relapsing infection with severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus-2 (SARS-CoV-2). This leads to morbidity and mortality, infection control challenges, and the risk of evolution of novel viral variants. The optimal treatment for chronic coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) is unknown. OBJECTIVE: Our aim was to characterize a cohort of patients with chronic or relapsing COVID-19 disease and record treatment response. METHODS: We conducted a UK physician survey to collect data on underlying diagnosis and demographics, clinical features, and treatment response of immunodeficient patients with chronic (lasting ≥21 days) or relapsing (≥2 episodes) of COVID-19. RESULTS: We identified 31 patients (median age 49 years). Their underlying immunodeficiency was most commonly characterized by antibody deficiency with absent or profoundly reduced peripheral B-cell levels; prior anti-CD20 therapy, and X-linked agammaglobulinemia. Their clinical features of COVID-19 were similar to those of the general population, but their median duration of symptomatic disease was 64 days (maximum 300 days) and individual patients experienced up to 5 episodes of illness. Remdesivir monotherapy (including when given for prolonged courses of ≤20 days) was associated with sustained viral clearance in 7 of 23 clinical episodes (30.4%), whereas the combination of remdesivir with convalescent plasma or anti-SARS-CoV-2 mAbs resulted in viral clearance in 13 of 14 episodes (92.8%). Patients receiving no therapy did not clear SARS-CoV-2. CONCLUSIONS: COVID-19 can present as a chronic or relapsing disease in patients with antibody deficiency. Remdesivir monotherapy is frequently associated with treatment failure, but the combination of remdesivir with antibody-based therapeutics holds promise.

Early antiviral treatment in outpatients with COVID-19 (FLARE): a structured summary of a study protocol for a randomised controlled trial.

OBJECTIVES: The objective of this trial is to assess whether early antiviral therapy in outpatients with COVID-19 with either favipiravir plus lopinavir/ritonavir, lopinavir/ritonavir alone, or favipiravir alone, is associated with a decrease in viral load of SARS-CoV-2 compared with placebo. TRIAL DESIGN: FLARE is a phase IIA randomised, double-blind, 2x2 factorial placebo-controlled, interventional trial. PARTICIPANTS: This trial is being conducted in the United Kingdom, with Royal Free Hospital, London as the lead site. Participants are non-hospitalised adults with highly suspected COVID-19 within the first 5 days of symptom onset, or who have tested positive with SARS-CoV-2 causing COVID-19 within the first 7 days of symptom onset, or who are asymptomatic but tested positive for SARS-CoV-2 for the first time within the last 48 hours. Inclusion criteria are as follows: 1. Any adult with the following: Symptoms compatible with COVID-19 disease (Fever >37.8°C on at least one occasion AND either cough and/ or anosmia) within the first 5 days of symptom onset (date/time of enrolment must be within the first 5 days of symptom onset) OR ANY symptoms compatible with COVID-19 disease (may include, but are not limited to fever, cough, shortness of breath, malaise, myalgia, headache, coryza) and tested positive for SARS-CoV-2 within the first 7 days of symptom onset) (date/time of enrolment must be within the first 7 days of symptom onset) OR no symptoms but tested positive for SARS-CoV-2 within the last 48 hours (date/time of test must be within 48 hours of enrolment) 2. Male or female aged 18 years to 70 years old inclusive at screening 3. Willing and able to take daily saliva samples 4. Able to provide full informed consent and willing to comply with trial-related procedures Exclusion criteria are as follows: 1. Known hypersensitivity to any of the active ingredients or excipients in favipiravir and matched placebo, and in lopinavir/ritonavir and matched placebo (See Appendix 2) 2. Chronic liver disease at screening (known cirrhosis of any aetiology, chronic hepatitis (e.g. autoimmune, viral, steatohepatitis), cholangitis or any known elevation of liver aminotransferases with AST or ALT > 3 X ULN)* 3. Chronic kidney disease (stage 3 or beyond) at screening: eGFR < 60 ml/min/1.73m2 * 4. HIV infection, if untreated, detectable viral load or on protease inhibitor therapy 5. Any clinical condition which the investigator considers would make the participant unsuitable for the trial 6. Concomitant medications known to interact with favipiravir and matched placebo, and with lopinavir/ritonavir and matched placebo, and carry risk of toxicity for the participant 7. Current severe illness requiring hospitalisation 8. Pregnancy and/ or breastfeeding 9. Eligible female participants of childbearing potential and male participants with a partner of childbearing potential not willing to use highly effective contraceptive measures during the trial and within the time point specified following last trial treatment dose. 10. Participants enrolled in any other interventional drug or vaccine trial (co-enrolment in observational studies is acceptable) 11. Participants who have received the COVID-19 vaccine *Considering the importance of early treatment of COVID-19 to impact viral load, the absence of known chronic liver/ kidney disease will be confirmed verbally by the participant during pre-screening and Screening/Baseline visit. Safety blood samples will be collected at Screening/Baseline visit (Day 1) and test results will be examined as soon as they become available and within 24 hours. INTERVENTION AND COMPARATOR: Participants will be randomised 1:1:1:1 using a concealed online minimisation process into one of the following four arms: Arm 1: Favipiravir + Lopinavir/ritonavir Oral favipiravir at 1800mg twice daily on Day 1, followed by 400mg four (4) times daily from Day 2 to Day 7 PLUS lopinavir/ritonavir at 400mg/100mg twice daily on Day 1, followed by 200mg/50mg four (4) times daily from Day 2 to Day 7. Arm 2: Favipiravir + Lopinavir/ritonavir placebo Oral favipiravir at 1800mg twice daily on Day 1, followed by 400mg four (4) times daily from Day 2 to Day 7 PLUS lopinavir/ritonavir matched placebo at 400mg/100mg twice daily on Day 1, followed by 200mg/50mg four (4) times daily from Day 2 to Day 7. Arm 3: Favipiravir placebo + Lopinavir/ritonavir Oral favipiravir matched placebo at 1800mg twice daily on Day 1, followed by 400mg four (4) times daily from Day 2 to Day 7 PLUS lopinavir/ritonavir at 400mg/100mg twice daily on Day 1, followed by 200mg/50mg four (4) times daily from Day 2 to Day 7. Arm 4: Favipiravir placebo + Lopinavir/ritonavir placebo Oral favipiravir matched placebo at 1800mg twice daily on Day 1, followed by 400mg four (4) times daily from Day 2 to Day 7 PLUS lopinavir/ritonavir matched placebo at 400mg/100mg twice daily on Day 1, followed by 200mg/50mg four (4) times daily from Day 2 to Day 7. MAIN OUTCOMES: The primary outcome is upper respiratory tract viral load at Day 5. SECONDARY OUTCOMES: Percentage of participants with undetectable upper respiratory tract viral load after 5 days of therapy Proportion of participants with undetectable stool viral load after 7 days of therapy Rate of decrease in upper respiratory tract viral load during 7 days of therapy Duration of fever following commencement of trial medications Proportion of participants with hepatotoxicity after 7 days of therapy Proportion of participants with other medication-related toxicity after 7 days of therapy and 14 days post-randomisation Proportion of participants admitted to hospital with COVID-19 related illness Proportion of participants admitted to ICU with COVID-19 related illness Proportion of participants who have died with COVID-19 related illness Pharmacokinetic and pharmacodynamic analysis of favipiravir Exploratory: Proportion of participants with deleterious or resistance-conferring mutations in SARS-CoV-2 RANDOMISATION: Participants will be randomised 1:1:1:1 using a concealed online minimisation process, with the following factors: trial site, age (≤ 55 vs > 55 years old), gender, obesity (BMI <30 vs ≥30), symptomatic or asymptomatic, current smoking status (Yes = current smoker, No = ex-smoker, never smoker), ethnicity (Caucasian, other) and presence or absence of comorbidity (defined as diabetes, hypertension, ischaemic heart disease (including previous myocardial infarction), other heart disease (arrhythmia and valvular heart disease), asthma, COPD, other chronic respiratory disease). BLINDING (MASKING): Participants and investigators will both be blinded to treatment allocation (double-blind). NUMBERS TO BE RANDOMISED (SAMPLE SIZE): 240 participants, 60 in each arm. TRIAL STATUS: Protocol version 4.0 dated 7th January 2021. Date of first enrolment: October 2020. Recruitment is ongoing, with anticipated finish date of 31st March 2021. TRIAL REGISTRATION: The FLARE trial is registered with Clinicaltrials.gov, trial identifying number NCT04499677 , date of registration 4th August 2020. FULL PROTOCOL: The full protocol is attached as an additional file, accessible from the Trials website (Additional file 1). In the interest in expediting dissemination of this material, the familiar formatting has been eliminated; this Letter serves as a summary of the key elements of the full protocol.

Early phase dose-finding trials in virology.

Little has been published in terms of dose-finding methodology in virology. Aside from a few papers focusing on HIV, the considerable progress in dose-finding methodology of the last 25 years has focused almost entirely on oncology. While adverse reactions to cytotoxic drugs may be life threatening, for anti-viral agents we anticipate something different: side effects that provoke the cessation of treatment. This would correspond to treatment failure. On the other hand, success would not be yes/no but would correspond to a range of responses, from small, no more than say 20% reduction in viral load to the complete elimination of the virus. Less than total success matters since this may allow the patient to achieve immune-mediated clearance. The motivation for this article is an upcoming dose-finding trial in chronic norovirus infection. We propose a novel methodology whose goal is twofold: first, to identify the dose that provides the most favorable distribution of treatment outcomes, and, second, to do this in a way that maximizes the treatment benefit for the patients included in the study.